Free Pedro

My brother called me out today. “Worst team in baseball, huh?” He had other things to say too. That wasn’t the worst of it.

I guess that’s the kind of criticism you take when you start putting your thoughts onto the internet for everyone to read. If you had asked me a week ago what the chances were that the Mets would put together five straight wins at any point for the rest of the season, I wouldn’t have given them any better than one chance in ten.

Well, that’s why they play the games.

Jason could probably run a graph telling us the odds of any given team winning a certain number of games for the rest of the year.  But for the next day’s games, what would it matter? It’s only a prediction. Underdogs win every day.

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Jonathan, how much does a top three of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and J.A. Happ scare you?

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Yesterday, I posted the average career arc of MLB players seeking to help explain the ramifications of age on player development and how it impacts signings and trades. One key critique was that there was nothing comparative in the analysis. Today, I’ll give an example of how this analysis can be used for comparative purposes by looking at a trade of Clay Buchholz and Roy Halladay. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s officially Trade Week, and because I know how we fans of the big-market teams spend this time of year fretting over the decision whether to sell the farm for a perennial all-star, I’ve put together this analysis to help us undertand just what’s at stake. Once I’ve covered trading the prospects, I’ve included some graphs of the signings our favorite teams (and my least favorite) have made over the past few years, in order to show how they value age in their decision process. Read the rest of this entry →

What a week for Mets fans. If the slow bleed from months of losses on the field doesn’t get you, then blunt trauma from management’s incompetence will.

Just think about this for a minute. The Mets VP of Player Development, Tony Bernazard, was fired this week because he launched into vicious tirades in the Citi Field stands during Mets games and then challenged the whole AA Binghamton Mets team to a shirtless brawl. And that wasn’t even the story of the week.
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It’s a great strategy for rounding out a rotation: sign low-priced veterans  and/or injury come-backs who might have something left. This is usually a low-risk move with high upside, and if you are the type of team that has the bankroll to take a flier on a guy or two like this every season, it can prove quite profitable (see Hernandez, 2009; Colon, 2008; Saberhagen, 1998 and 1999). One shouldn’t expect anything more than a backend of the rotation guy who can give you some innings and an ERA in the mid-fours. Something better is great, and anything worse  is fine because you didn’t spend a lot and your expectations should have been low. The only way this strategy burns a team is if they aren’t willing to pull the plug. It’s clear at this point that John Smoltz is done. Masterson is a better pitcher. There’s a pennant race going on.  Time to make the switch.

It’s tough for baseball fans to be familiar with the top prospects from every team. Each year, when the trade deadline comes around, I feel woefully unprepared for the minor-league name-dropping that ensues.

What I always like to remember is that I don’t know those names for a reason. The prospects are still prospects. They haven’t proved to anyone that they can make it in the Major Leagues.  And if there is one thing we have learned over the years about MLB scouting, it’s that it is an inexact science at best.

From that simple revelation, I don’t need any minor league knowledge to know what the big trade this year ought to be. For the Phillies and Blue Jays the path is clear. They must strike a deal for Roy Halladay. They’d be crazy not to.
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When we look back on David Wright’s career fifteen years from now, we will regard his 2009 season either as an unfortunate speed bump just before his glorious prime, or as the year when great expectations for Wright and the Mets came crashing down onto unsold corporate seats at Citi Field. Read the rest of this entry →

I loved this game (boxscore here). It featured a walkoff, a brawl, a blown save, five lead changes, a six-run inning by the losing team, and, of course, the picture to the right. You lack a baseball soul if  that doesn’t make you smile. Who doesn’t like seeing A-Rod take it in the face, and who better to give it to him than the epitome of all that is good, Tek? Unfortunately, this game was not as significant as the Boston fans celebrating its anniversary today, seem to be making it out to be. Read the rest of this entry →

Back in 2003, Scott Hatteberg was the best hitter in baseball–OK, maybe not the best but apparently most mispriced–and the arbitrageur Billy Beane was eating free lunches almost daily. OPS was what mattered. Of course, then OPS became overpriced, and Billy started buying based on other statistics, ones that I don’t know of because he smartened up and didn’t let Michael Lewis put his new ones in a book. Intuitively, I still like OPS, but I think I have improved it. Read the rest of this entry →