A Failed Experiment
It’s a great strategy for rounding out a rotation: sign low-priced veterans and/or injury come-backs who might have something left. This is usually a low-risk move with high upside, and if you are the type of team that has the bankroll to take a flier on a guy or two like this every season, it can prove quite profitable (see Hernandez, 2009; Colon, 2008; Saberhagen, 1998 and 1999). One shouldn’t expect anything more than a backend of the rotation guy who can give you some innings and an ERA in the mid-fours. Something better is great, and anything worse is fine because you didn’t spend a lot and your expectations should have been low. The only way this strategy burns a team is if they aren’t willing to pull the plug. It’s clear at this point that John Smoltz is done. Masterson is a better pitcher. There’s a pennant race going on. Time to make the switch.