Playoffs? Playoffs!? Omar, Please, Don’t Make a Deal
My brother called me out today. “Worst team in baseball, huh?” He had other things to say too. That wasn’t the worst of it.
I guess that’s the kind of criticism you take when you start putting your thoughts onto the internet for everyone to read. If you had asked me a week ago what the chances were that the Mets would put together five straight wins at any point for the rest of the season, I wouldn’t have given them any better than one chance in ten.
Well, that’s why they play the games.
Jason could probably run a graph telling us the odds of any given team winning a certain number of games for the rest of the year. But for the next day’s games, what would it matter? It’s only a prediction. Underdogs win every day.
Just as I was comforting myself with these thoughts, my brother called me a bad fan and told me he wouldn’t be sitting next to me at Citi Field come playoff time.
Where’s Jim when you need him? Jim? Jim!? Ah, good, here he is:
It never get’s old, does it?
I enlisted Jim’s help to drive home this simple but profound point: It’s a long season, and even a five game winning streak couldn’t change the fact that the Mets are in fourth place in the NL East. There are also eight – count ‘em, eight – teams ahead of them in the Wild Card.
So I don’t want to hear any talk about the playoffs. I’m just nervous this little winning streak will provide Omar Minaya the cover he needs to make a monumentally stupid move that will mortgage what’s left of our future. He can’t wait to gamble with borrowed money. I can feel it. He just needed the right excuse. Well the Mets have served it up. Now that Omar is finished crying over his most recent embarrassment, he’s probably out looking for the deal that will take the heat off and keep the Mets just close enough to the pennant race to put fans in the seats.
The problem is that the Mets have virtually no shot at the playoffs. The Monte Carlo simulation gives them a 3.64% chance entering today’s games. Now, I know what I just wrote. That’s why they play the games, right? Didn’t the Rockies win 13 of their last 14 to make the playoffs back in ’07? Well, yes, they did. But that’s not the kind of scenario you have in mind at the trade deadline. You don’t make a deal thinking you are going to turn a sub-.500 bottom-dweller into a .650 machine down the stretch.
Does that make me a bad fan? No. I want the Mets to win as much as anyone. I just accept the fact that if they are going to go .650 down the stretch and make the playoffs, they are going to have to do it with the players they’ve got.
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