Free Pedro

I’d like to take this opportunity to begin a debate. A great debate. It’s time to begin the (naive?) postmortem on the Steroid Era. To me, the most interesting question is our first question:

Who was the best pitcher of the steroid era?

And to kick off the debate, I’ve invited Danny Stahl, our friend and long-suffering Royals fan – and  amateur baseball analyst – to share his thoughts. He has written a very thorough and thoughtful essay, in which he comes to a very unfortunate conclusion for those who love Pedro…

Here it is, published in all its Pedro-hater (i.e. Maddux-loving) glory:

Who’s the best pitcher of our era?

So let me start by defining the question. ‘Best’ is a combination of every possible factor one would consider, and I’ll do my best to compile a list of pitchers who any somewhat knowledgeable baseball fan would consider. ‘Our ‘ is the Generation Y group who has grown up in this ‘era’ of baseball often described as the steroid era.

For me, the era starts on April 23rd, 1988. No, that’s not my birthday – that was 33 days earlier. No, April 23rd was Steve Carlton’s last game, and he was out of this world good (he won 27 games for a team that won only 59), so he’s the line I’m drawing.
Since then I can come up with only a handful of pitchers who are to be considered for this great honor. They are in no particular order:

Representing Starters:
Pedro Martinez
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz

Representing Closers:
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

… ok so right off the bat, I was joking about both closers. Both were great in their own ways, but cannot be included in this list. I think the modern day 1-inning closer is bogus and proof of that is how bad the Royals are despite having the league leader in ERA starting every 5 days and one of the league’s best closers at the end. Closers play a smaller and smaller role these days.

OK, moving on. I’m going to eliminate John Smoltz due to his time spent as a closer, and Tom Glavine for being only the 2nd best on his own team behind Maddux. So that leaves Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, and Maddux. Once again, I’m making a speed judgment call, but because this is the ’steroid era’ we’re discussing, beating the big monsters at the plate is more impressive when you DON’T join in on the ‘roid party. Clemens eliminated. (Oh and he’s a jackass and I don’t like him, so according to Hall of Fame statute #5 Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to his team) Roger has none of the bolded whatsoever. (http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3525/3238924680_891732c539_o.jpg).

Getting down to 2 was a bit harder, so I could actually do a one-on-one analysis. I chose to eliminate Johnson for a few reasons. First is that this blog loves Pedro, and next is the fact that Randy was great between the ages of 35-40, which is a little unbelievable to have happened without steroids. [Editor's Note: wo, wo, calm down, no one is accusing anyone of anything]. Also Randy too is a jackass, and was at his best when he got to move to the #2 slot behind Schilling on the Diamondbacks. So here we go, here’s the fight of the era, Pedro -vs- Madd Dog. We’ll start with some basics and go from there.

Pedro:
214-99 (.684), 2.91 ERA, 3117 K’s, 757 BB’s

Maddux:
355-227 (.610), 3.10 ERA, 3371 K’s, 999 BB’s

It’s even. Pedro wins in winning percentage, Maddux is 8th all time in wins. Pedro has a slightly lower ERA, Maddux has more K’s. So what in the world could separate these two? Here’s a few more detailed stats to go along with it.

K/BB-> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 4.14
Maddux: 3.37

K/9-> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 10.1
Maddux: 6.1

ERA+ -> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 154
Maddux: 132

BB/9 -> Advantage Maddux
Pedro: 2.4
Maddux: 1.8

WHIP -> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 1.051
Maddux: 1.143

Seems like I’m going to go with Pedro doesn’t it? Well I’m not and here’s why…

Greg Maddux is quite possibly not only the best pitcher in our era, but the best of all time. He’s 8th all time in wins, and has put together a longer more consistently productive career than anyone in baseball history. Despite the fact that people often say that Pedro had a “Kofax’esque” career, he has had 14 seasons of at least 20 starts. He played roughly from ages 21-35 in which he led the league in ERA 5 times, K’s 3, and Wins once, but also had seasons with win totals of 10, 11, 14, 13, 7, 14, 9, and 5. Remember, he played for the Red Sox and Mets, who averaged 4.93 runs/game in his lowest total year (2008). Pedro has only led the league in wins once (23) and despite lower totals, Maddux has done it three times (20, 16, 19).

During that same age span, Greg Maddux never won FEWER than 15 games. In fact he did it from ages 22-38, threw in a season of 13 wins, and then got another 15-win season at 40. His streak of 15+ win seasons is 17 years. For 17 straight years, he was great, posting a 3.10 ERA and never failing to get his team the wins they needed from their starter. I understand that he only won 20 games once, but never posting a season under 10 wins for 20 years surely makes up for it. I have to give the nod to the Mad Dog for all of this, and go ahead and throw in his 4 Cy Youngs and 18 Gold Gloves for fun.

Bring on the controversy, but my pick is the Mad Dog. And hey, chicks dig the longball.

-Danny Stahl

To those who love Pedro, or somehow Johnson, or – dare I say – even to those who love Clemens, you’d better bring your A-game. Danny Stahl has thrown down the gauntlet.