Free Pedro

Outside of October, “must win” doesn’t exist in baseball. Momentum stops with tomorrow night’s pitcher, it isn’t a sprint, games in April count the same as the ones in September, blah blah blah… all the things you’ve already heard. These are all things I know to be true. I know too it’s true that tonight’s game is not in any real sense of the overused, misapplied phrase, a “must win.” But it sure feels like it. Read the rest of this entry →

Let me refer you back to this post. The John Smoltz thing wasn’t working two weeks ago, it’s not going to work tonight, and it’s not going to start working. Well, at least we have Masterson to replace him with… What?… We did?… Well then… Read the rest of this entry →

Yesterday, I posted the average career arc of MLB players seeking to help explain the ramifications of age on player development and how it impacts signings and trades. One key critique was that there was nothing comparative in the analysis. Today, I’ll give an example of how this analysis can be used for comparative purposes by looking at a trade of Clay Buchholz and Roy Halladay. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s officially Trade Week, and because I know how we fans of the big-market teams spend this time of year fretting over the decision whether to sell the farm for a perennial all-star, I’ve put together this analysis to help us undertand just what’s at stake. Once I’ve covered trading the prospects, I’ve included some graphs of the signings our favorite teams (and my least favorite) have made over the past few years, in order to show how they value age in their decision process. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s a great strategy for rounding out a rotation: sign low-priced veterans  and/or injury come-backs who might have something left. This is usually a low-risk move with high upside, and if you are the type of team that has the bankroll to take a flier on a guy or two like this every season, it can prove quite profitable (see Hernandez, 2009; Colon, 2008; Saberhagen, 1998 and 1999). One shouldn’t expect anything more than a backend of the rotation guy who can give you some innings and an ERA in the mid-fours. Something better is great, and anything worse  is fine because you didn’t spend a lot and your expectations should have been low. The only way this strategy burns a team is if they aren’t willing to pull the plug. It’s clear at this point that John Smoltz is done. Masterson is a better pitcher. There’s a pennant race going on.  Time to make the switch.

I loved this game (boxscore here). It featured a walkoff, a brawl, a blown save, five lead changes, a six-run inning by the losing team, and, of course, the picture to the right. You lack a baseball soul if  that doesn’t make you smile. Who doesn’t like seeing A-Rod take it in the face, and who better to give it to him than the epitome of all that is good, Tek? Unfortunately, this game was not as significant as the Boston fans celebrating its anniversary today, seem to be making it out to be. Read the rest of this entry →

Back in 2003, Scott Hatteberg was the best hitter in baseball–OK, maybe not the best but apparently most mispriced–and the arbitrageur Billy Beane was eating free lunches almost daily. OPS was what mattered. Of course, then OPS became overpriced, and Billy started buying based on other statistics, ones that I don’t know of because he smartened up and didn’t let Michael Lewis put his new ones in a book. Intuitively, I still like OPS, but I think I have improved it. Read the rest of this entry →