Free Pedro

Jonathan, how much does a top three of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and J.A. Happ scare you?

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Yesterday, I posted the average career arc of MLB players seeking to help explain the ramifications of age on player development and how it impacts signings and trades. One key critique was that there was nothing comparative in the analysis. Today, I’ll give an example of how this analysis can be used for comparative purposes by looking at a trade of Clay Buchholz and Roy Halladay. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s officially Trade Week, and because I know how we fans of the big-market teams spend this time of year fretting over the decision whether to sell the farm for a perennial all-star, I’ve put together this analysis to help us undertand just what’s at stake. Once I’ve covered trading the prospects, I’ve included some graphs of the signings our favorite teams (and my least favorite) have made over the past few years, in order to show how they value age in their decision process. Read the rest of this entry →

I loved this game (boxscore here). It featured a walkoff, a brawl, a blown save, five lead changes, a six-run inning by the losing team, and, of course, the picture to the right. You lack a baseball soul if  that doesn’t make you smile. Who doesn’t like seeing A-Rod take it in the face, and who better to give it to him than the epitome of all that is good, Tek? Unfortunately, this game was not as significant as the Boston fans celebrating its anniversary today, seem to be making it out to be. Read the rest of this entry →

Back in 2003, Scott Hatteberg was the best hitter in baseball–OK, maybe not the best but apparently most mispriced–and the arbitrageur Billy Beane was eating free lunches almost daily. OPS was what mattered. Of course, then OPS became overpriced, and Billy started buying based on other statistics, ones that I don’t know of because he smartened up and didn’t let Michael Lewis put his new ones in a book. Intuitively, I still like OPS, but I think I have improved it. Read the rest of this entry →