Jonathan, how much does a top three of Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and J.A. Happ scare you?

If it does scare you, maybe it shouldn’t. I looked at the top three in the rotation for the NL playoff contenders (and the Mets) this year, and found that, even after adding Lee, the Phillies are behind the other contenders in front-of-the-rotation talent. For the data below, I found out what it would look like if you created a pitcher out of the top three in each of the rotations (weighted average) for each of the contenders and had him throw 240 innings. One obvious caveat is that Lee’s stats were compiled in the more difficult league for pitchers. He should perform better in AAAA.

Hamels, Lee, Happ is a post from: Free Pedro

What I always like to remember is that I don’t know those names for a reason. The prospects are still prospects. They haven’t proved to anyone that they can make it in the Major Leagues.  And if there is one thing we have learned over the years about MLB scouting, it’s that it is an inexact science at best.

From that simple revelation, I don’t need any minor league knowledge to know what the big trade this year ought to be. For the Phillies and Blue Jays the path is clear. They must strike a deal for Roy Halladay. They’d be crazy not to.

This is a deal that makes sense for both sides. Halladay is 32 with a whole lot of mileage. I don’t think the Blue Jays can count on building a winner around him next year, especially not with the Red Sox and Yankees peaking. They probably can’t afford him long term either, but the truth is they shouldn’t want him anyway. In the post-steroid era, teams should think long and hard before signing 33-year-olds with a penchant for throwing complete games to long-term contracts. Not everyone can (or should) be Roger Clemens.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are in very serious contention again this year. They lead the NL East by 6.5 games over Florida (yes, 10.5 over my beloved fourth-place Mets), and they have scored more runs than any team in the NL—a trend we can rest assured will continue.  But Jamie Moyer is showing his age – finally – and Cole Hamels might be feeling the effects of throwing a thousand innings last year. If the Phillies hope to make a run to the World Series again, I’m not convinced they can count on both Hamels and Moyer to show up. That makes Roy Halladay the prefect answer to their only question.

Why Roy Halladay? For three simple reasons.

First, he’s Roy Halladay – you know, the Cy Young award winner who has thrown 24 complete games in the last 4 seasons, all while maintaining an ERA around 3.00. He is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA this year in the AL East. Imagine the damage he could do in the Senior Circuit. Let’s just say the NL East isn’t exactly playing Major-League-quality baseball this year.

Second, Roy Halladay is the perfect pitcher for Citizens Bank Park. He is a groundball-strikeout guy who can go deep into a game and save your bullpen. Down the stretch, it doesn’t get any better than that. When you play baseball on a softball field, you just can’t ask for a better fit than Roy Halladay.

Third, you get him for two seasons – at least. I think the Phillies should consider signing him to an extension, simply because he is such a great fit for their ballpark. I wouldn’t go longer than 5 years, but that will be for the Phillies to work out.

Now we read from Jayson Stark that the Phillies are balking because they don’t want to include both J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek in the deal. Granted, J.A. Happ has been excellent for the Phillies so far in 2009. The Phillies can feel justified in their reluctance to trade away top pitching prospect Drabek (about whom I know nothing), and their 6’6” 26-year-old left-hander Happ, who has a 2.97 ERA along with 71 strikeouts in 100 innings pitched this year.

The problem is that these days the Phillies are in the business of winning the World Series, and it’s not the kind of opportunity that comes along every year. No team in the NL East is prepared to make a run. The Phillies are virtually assured of a playoff spot. They’ve just got to get the one piece that can bring it all together in October.

That piece is Roy Halladay.

Doc to Philly? It’s Meant to Be. is a post from: Free Pedro