Who was the best pitcher of the steroid era?

And to kick off the debate, I’ve invited Danny Stahl, our friend and long-suffering Royals fan – and  amateur baseball analyst – to share his thoughts. He has written a very thorough and thoughtful essay, in which he comes to a very unfortunate conclusion for those who love Pedro…

Here it is, published in all its Pedro-hater (i.e. Maddux-loving) glory:

Who’s the best pitcher of our era?

So let me start by defining the question. ‘Best’ is a combination of every possible factor one would consider, and I’ll do my best to compile a list of pitchers who any somewhat knowledgeable baseball fan would consider. ‘Our ‘ is the Generation Y group who has grown up in this ‘era’ of baseball often described as the steroid era.

For me, the era starts on April 23rd, 1988. No, that’s not my birthday – that was 33 days earlier. No, April 23rd was Steve Carlton’s last game, and he was out of this world good (he won 27 games for a team that won only 59), so he’s the line I’m drawing.
Since then I can come up with only a handful of pitchers who are to be considered for this great honor. They are in no particular order:

Representing Starters:
Pedro Martinez
Roger Clemens
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Tom Glavine
John Smoltz

Representing Closers:
Mariano Rivera
Trevor Hoffman

… ok so right off the bat, I was joking about both closers. Both were great in their own ways, but cannot be included in this list. I think the modern day 1-inning closer is bogus and proof of that is how bad the Royals are despite having the league leader in ERA starting every 5 days and one of the league’s best closers at the end. Closers play a smaller and smaller role these days.

OK, moving on. I’m going to eliminate John Smoltz due to his time spent as a closer, and Tom Glavine for being only the 2nd best on his own team behind Maddux. So that leaves Martinez, Clemens, Johnson, and Maddux. Once again, I’m making a speed judgment call, but because this is the ’steroid era’ we’re discussing, beating the big monsters at the plate is more impressive when you DON’T join in on the ‘roid party. Clemens eliminated. (Oh and he’s a jackass and I don’t like him, so according to Hall of Fame statute #5 Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to his team) Roger has none of the bolded whatsoever. (http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3525/3238924680_891732c539_o.jpg).

Getting down to 2 was a bit harder, so I could actually do a one-on-one analysis. I chose to eliminate Johnson for a few reasons. First is that this blog loves Pedro, and next is the fact that Randy was great between the ages of 35-40, which is a little unbelievable to have happened without steroids. [Editor's Note: wo, wo, calm down, no one is accusing anyone of anything]. Also Randy too is a jackass, and was at his best when he got to move to the #2 slot behind Schilling on the Diamondbacks. So here we go, here’s the fight of the era, Pedro -vs- Madd Dog. We’ll start with some basics and go from there.

Pedro:
214-99 (.684), 2.91 ERA, 3117 K’s, 757 BB’s

Maddux:
355-227 (.610), 3.10 ERA, 3371 K’s, 999 BB’s

It’s even. Pedro wins in winning percentage, Maddux is 8th all time in wins. Pedro has a slightly lower ERA, Maddux has more K’s. So what in the world could separate these two? Here’s a few more detailed stats to go along with it.

K/BB-> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 4.14
Maddux: 3.37

K/9-> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 10.1
Maddux: 6.1

ERA+ -> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 154
Maddux: 132

BB/9 -> Advantage Maddux
Pedro: 2.4
Maddux: 1.8

WHIP -> Advantage Pedro
Pedro: 1.051
Maddux: 1.143

Seems like I’m going to go with Pedro doesn’t it? Well I’m not and here’s why…

Greg Maddux is quite possibly not only the best pitcher in our era, but the best of all time. He’s 8th all time in wins, and has put together a longer more consistently productive career than anyone in baseball history. Despite the fact that people often say that Pedro had a “Kofax’esque” career, he has had 14 seasons of at least 20 starts. He played roughly from ages 21-35 in which he led the league in ERA 5 times, K’s 3, and Wins once, but also had seasons with win totals of 10, 11, 14, 13, 7, 14, 9, and 5. Remember, he played for the Red Sox and Mets, who averaged 4.93 runs/game in his lowest total year (2008). Pedro has only led the league in wins once (23) and despite lower totals, Maddux has done it three times (20, 16, 19).

During that same age span, Greg Maddux never won FEWER than 15 games. In fact he did it from ages 22-38, threw in a season of 13 wins, and then got another 15-win season at 40. His streak of 15+ win seasons is 17 years. For 17 straight years, he was great, posting a 3.10 ERA and never failing to get his team the wins they needed from their starter. I understand that he only won 20 games once, but never posting a season under 10 wins for 20 years surely makes up for it. I have to give the nod to the Mad Dog for all of this, and go ahead and throw in his 4 Cy Youngs and 18 Gold Gloves for fun.

Bring on the controversy, but my pick is the Mad Dog. And hey, chicks dig the longball.

-Danny Stahl

To those who love Pedro, or somehow Johnson, or – dare I say – even to those who love Clemens, you’d better bring your A-game. Danny Stahl has thrown down the gauntlet.

Open Thread: Who is the Best Pitcher of the Steroid Era? is a post from: Free Pedro

What I always like to remember is that I don’t know those names for a reason. The prospects are still prospects. They haven’t proved to anyone that they can make it in the Major Leagues.  And if there is one thing we have learned over the years about MLB scouting, it’s that it is an inexact science at best.

From that simple revelation, I don’t need any minor league knowledge to know what the big trade this year ought to be. For the Phillies and Blue Jays the path is clear. They must strike a deal for Roy Halladay. They’d be crazy not to.

This is a deal that makes sense for both sides. Halladay is 32 with a whole lot of mileage. I don’t think the Blue Jays can count on building a winner around him next year, especially not with the Red Sox and Yankees peaking. They probably can’t afford him long term either, but the truth is they shouldn’t want him anyway. In the post-steroid era, teams should think long and hard before signing 33-year-olds with a penchant for throwing complete games to long-term contracts. Not everyone can (or should) be Roger Clemens.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are in very serious contention again this year. They lead the NL East by 6.5 games over Florida (yes, 10.5 over my beloved fourth-place Mets), and they have scored more runs than any team in the NL—a trend we can rest assured will continue.  But Jamie Moyer is showing his age – finally – and Cole Hamels might be feeling the effects of throwing a thousand innings last year. If the Phillies hope to make a run to the World Series again, I’m not convinced they can count on both Hamels and Moyer to show up. That makes Roy Halladay the prefect answer to their only question.

Why Roy Halladay? For three simple reasons.

First, he’s Roy Halladay – you know, the Cy Young award winner who has thrown 24 complete games in the last 4 seasons, all while maintaining an ERA around 3.00. He is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA this year in the AL East. Imagine the damage he could do in the Senior Circuit. Let’s just say the NL East isn’t exactly playing Major-League-quality baseball this year.

Second, Roy Halladay is the perfect pitcher for Citizens Bank Park. He is a groundball-strikeout guy who can go deep into a game and save your bullpen. Down the stretch, it doesn’t get any better than that. When you play baseball on a softball field, you just can’t ask for a better fit than Roy Halladay.

Third, you get him for two seasons – at least. I think the Phillies should consider signing him to an extension, simply because he is such a great fit for their ballpark. I wouldn’t go longer than 5 years, but that will be for the Phillies to work out.

Now we read from Jayson Stark that the Phillies are balking because they don’t want to include both J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek in the deal. Granted, J.A. Happ has been excellent for the Phillies so far in 2009. The Phillies can feel justified in their reluctance to trade away top pitching prospect Drabek (about whom I know nothing), and their 6’6” 26-year-old left-hander Happ, who has a 2.97 ERA along with 71 strikeouts in 100 innings pitched this year.

The problem is that these days the Phillies are in the business of winning the World Series, and it’s not the kind of opportunity that comes along every year. No team in the NL East is prepared to make a run. The Phillies are virtually assured of a playoff spot. They’ve just got to get the one piece that can bring it all together in October.

That piece is Roy Halladay.

Doc to Philly? It’s Meant to Be. is a post from: Free Pedro