Free Pedro

Yesterday, I posted the average career arc of MLB players seeking to help explain the ramifications of age on player development and how it impacts signings and trades. One key critique was that there was nothing comparative in the analysis. Today, I’ll give an example of how this analysis can be used for comparative purposes by looking at a trade of Clay Buchholz and Roy Halladay. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s officially Trade Week, and because I know how we fans of the big-market teams spend this time of year fretting over the decision whether to sell the farm for a perennial all-star, I’ve put together this analysis to help us undertand just what’s at stake. Once I’ve covered trading the prospects, I’ve included some graphs of the signings our favorite teams (and my least favorite) have made over the past few years, in order to show how they value age in their decision process. Read the rest of this entry →

It’s tough for baseball fans to be familiar with the top prospects from every team. Each year, when the trade deadline comes around, I feel woefully unprepared for the minor-league name-dropping that ensues.

What I always like to remember is that I don’t know those names for a reason. The prospects are still prospects. They haven’t proved to anyone that they can make it in the Major Leagues.  And if there is one thing we have learned over the years about MLB scouting, it’s that it is an inexact science at best.

From that simple revelation, I don’t need any minor league knowledge to know what the big trade this year ought to be. For the Phillies and Blue Jays the path is clear. They must strike a deal for Roy Halladay. They’d be crazy not to.
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